RealEstateJournal | Commercial Lending Is Showing Signs of Strain
Rating services are flagging some of the first signs of strain in the booming commercial-lending market.
Moody's Investors Service Inc., which rates and monitors commercial mortgages that are packaged and issued as bonds, says in a report released this morning that the commercial-mortgage market is showing two disturbing trends. Loan-to-value ratios, which measure the amount of a loan in relation to its market value, and debt-service coverage ratios, which measure the monthly amount the borrower pays in relation to the property's cash flow, are carrying more risks than they ever have before, according to the report.
"People are borrowing an amount equal to what the property was worth five years ago," says Tad Philipp, Moody's managing director of commercial-mortgage finance and the study's lead author. "It's reached a point where we're no longer comfortable."
While many issuers in the commercial-finance market have applauded the record amount of commercial mortgage-backed securities issued in 2005, about $169 billion, Moody's says it views these signs as records that are often "best not broken." Commercial-mortgage loans had increased to 15% of the gross domestic product as of the third quarter of 2005. That level hadn't been reached since the peak of the nation's last commercial real-estate cycle, in 1988.
Mr. Philipp said this real-estate cycle, unlike the last boom, hasn't suffered from overbuilding. During the last cycle, buildings remained empty and commercial rents were weak for years. Moody's research found that average yields, or returns on commercial real-estate properties, are at their lowest since the American Council of Life Insurers started to report such data in 1965. This decline largely has been driven by the high volume of loans that banks are making; as banks are willing to lend more, buyers are willing to pay more for buildings.
